Can You Win A Super Bowl Without a Top
Defense?
We are starting to come down the home stretch in the NFL and, as
the playoff races start to shape up, I have a few thoughts on the historic
aspect of what teams typically do in the NFL to get to and win a Super Bowl.
The NFL has changed dramatically in recent years as many QBs have thrown
for over 5000 yards and 40 plus TD. Consequently, the running backs and
defenses are becoming endangered species. However, one thing that I
noticed over the most recent years, that if your defense is really bad, it is
very difficult to win the Super Bowl.
The only team that has given up over 400 points in the modern era,
since the NFL expanded to a 16 regular season schedule, is the 2011 NY Giants
who gave up exactly 400. The Giants were a team that was really injury
plagued a lot of that season, but once they got healthy and Eli Manning got
hot, they won the Super Bowl with tremendous play. They upset the Green Bay
Packers and MVP of that year, QB Aaron Rodgers, 37-20, in the frigid cold and
then gutted out a win over a very good SF 49ers team, who's defense gave up only
229 points, in overtime 20-17.
The 2006 Indianapolis Colts had a really bad run defense and
did give up 360 points on the season, however the healthy comeback of Bob
Sanders at Safety really put them in a good position and the Colts defense
improved immensely. This was key to Peyton Manning getting his only Super
Bowl win to date. Peyton is part of a Broncos team this year that has
scored at a record pace at 535 points through 14 games, however their defense
is really shaky giving up 372 points so far. As a Bronco fan this is alarming
as last season they only gave up 289 points in a full season. What has gone
wrong here? I think that the injury to Champ Bailey and the loss of Elvis
Dumervil to a contract snag has not helped. It is also human nature at times to
let up if you have a big lead, and their offense has scored more than 50
points in 3 games this year. I feel the talent is there for their defense
to be at least decent and give up 24 PPG, which should be more than enough to
have them make a run at a Super Bowl. Their biggest competition ,the NE
Patriots, have given up 289 points through 14 games and have their own big
injures that they are dealing with. The loss of Vince Wilfork and Jerrod Mayo
has weakened a unit that has been very good through the first 6 games. The Pats
have also lost their best target for Tom Brady with Rob Gronkowski getting a
torn ACL in the last game vs. the Browns.
The Cincinnati Bengals play very good defense and should be a
force to be reckoned with in the AFC playoffs. They only have given up 244
points through 13 games. The main concern for me is that their QB, Andy
Dalton, is inconsistent. One week he can throw 4 TD and the next 4 int. In the
playoffs you need consistency. Can Dalton provide this? He definitely has the
talent at WR in AJ Green and a super rookie Giovanni Bernard at RB, who is a
double threat to both run the ball and catch out of the backfield. Just
for the record my preseason pick in the AFC to get to the Super Bowl, was
Cincinnati because of the balance they have. The KC Chiefs also have a
good defense only giving up 224 points in 13 games. Their offense is sometimes
a bit up and down but they do not turn the ball over and have had an excellent
turnaround season. I am not so sure even with a good defense that they are
ready to make a deep run this year as of yet. I am not a big fan of Alex Smith,
the king of the check down or as Christina @yeswhatisaygoes said on twitter, ankle biter
passes. That is very funny and very true.
The NFC when it comes to defense is clear cut. The best overall
team in the NFL so far, the Seattle Seahawks are very good in this department,
especially at home. They have only given up 205 points so far and can dominate.
Their offense does enough as well scoring 357 points in 13 games. Seattle has
won 17 straight home games and will be very very tough to beat at Centurylink
field if they get the home field throughout. The New Orleans Saints have
improved big time in their scoring defense since last season when they were
putrid. They have given up 243 points in 13 games and seem to play even better
when in the friendly confines of the Superdome. The Saints are thought of as an
offensive team with Drew Brees rolling along as usual but their defense it the
season they won the Super Bowl gave up 341 points but they scored 513 and
caused lots of turnovers. A good pass rush in 2013 is underrated in my
opinion.
Another team that has had a very good defense the last 3 seasons
is the SF 49ers and 2013 is no exception. The have only given up 214 points, 9
more than the Seahawks and always hit hard and can physically beat you.
The thing that hurts the 49ers is that they seem to struggle on offense
at times scoring only 314 points and Colin Kaepernick has been inconsistent in
his 2nd season as QB and first full year starting.
So, some thoughts on the above teams and what I believe is needed
to be a Championship team. I think that if you have a top notch offense, your
defense can only give up about 24 PPG but needs to have a good pass rush and
cause turnovers at the right time. This was the formula that the offensive
teams of the Colts and Saints have been using in the last 10 years to win.
I also think that if you have a top defense like the Seahawks, 49ers or
the Bengals, you can win with a mediocre offense that does not turn the ball
over. This basically has been the formula for the Seahawks the last 2 seasons.
To me they are the team in the NFL to beat right now, barring any injuries.
A great home field advantage will help and if they do get to the Super
Bowl, with it being in NY and a potential for bad weather, the team is built to
do this.
If I had my way, the NFL would go back to the rules the way they were
prior to 2003 when the defense could get away with some contact allowed down
the field, as long as it was not blatant. I really really hate the pass
interference spot foul penalties that can change the outcome of a game. I
wish the NFL would go to the college rule that even if there is PI, it would be
a 15 yard max penalty and not a 45 or 50 yard penalty. I also would like
the NFL not to call so many roughing the QB penalties and let the players play.
I know concussions have been a hot topic, but it is worse to me to go low
and ruin a player’s season by hitting someone in the knee and having them tear
their ACL and have to have surgery. The hit on Rob Gronkowski was so uncalled
for last week but the NFL does not allow defensive players to hit the middle of
the player that can be a high hit as it would lead to a possible suspension and
fine for them. So NFL it’s better for knee injuries as well on low hits.
Brandon Merriweather who is a dirty player did say it best when he said he
might tear some ACLs when hitting low to keep from getting fined and suspended.
I think he said the wrong thing but he is right that the Defensive Backs
are in a no win situation on this. It really stinks and I hope the NFL
can wake up and come to some compromise that will help all parties involved.
I want to thank everyone for reading my humble blog. I hope you
have as much fun reading it as I did writing it.
