SNF Broncos at Patriots My Preview

My Preview of the Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

 The Denver Broncos who are 9-1 visit the New England Patriots who are 7-3 on Sunday November 24^th.   I have been a Denver Broncos fan for over 30 years and I really have been looking forward to this game. Last year was the first time I have ever seen Peyton Manning play in the 31-21 loss here in Foxboro in October.  I have a lot of respect for the Patriots and Tom Brady as he has had a Hall of Fame career and has an 80-14 career record at home. He has not lost to an AFC team at home since 2006. That is amazing. He lost only 3 times vs. the Giants, 49ers and Cardinals (not sure how Arizona won, no offense to them).  Of all the teams in the NFL, the only team that Brady is under 500 against is the Denver Broncos. He is 3-5 against them.

Over the years Brady has had the upper hand against Manning. He is 9-4 including the playoffs. Sometimes some of these games were not always about the offenses, the defenses of especially the Patriots from 2001-2004 was as good as it got in the league.  They had one of the best passer ratings against in 2003 when they won the Super Bowl.  Manning for most of his career boasted weak defenses.  This is not an excuse for either QB. Brady had some mediocre defenses as well. He made the Super Bowl in 2011 with about as bad of a defense that the Patriots had during the Belicheck era. 

On to this game.  The Broncos have had a great offensive season. They are currently averaging 39.8 PPG and have scored at least 27 points in every game. Manning through 10 games has thrown for over 3500 yards, 34 TD and only 6 Int. He has a set of wide receivers Wes Welker 61 catches, 9 TD, Demaryius Thomas 60 catches,, 9 TD and Eric Decker 54 catches, 3 TD. Super TE Julius Thomas who still struggles as a blocker but is a fantastic pass catcher has 45 catches and 10 TD.  Knowshon Moreno leads the running backs with 600 yards rushing and 8 TD. He has also caught 37 passes and is an all-around player as he has been great at pass protecting Manning by picking up the Blitz. The offensive line has done a good job by only allowing 13 sacks in 10 games.  However, Manning has probably one of the quickest releases in NFL history, so he basically makes most offensive lines look good in my opinion.  As of right now, Wes Welker is still being evaluated for a concussion and we are not sure if he will get to play against his old team. It would be a shame if he can’t go.

The Patriots defense has really improved since last year. Chandler Jones is having a fantastic season with 9.5 sacks through 10 games. Rob Ninkovich and Chris Jones each have 5 sacks.  The defense is giving up an average of 19.9 PPG. The defense however has taken some really bad hits with injuries. They have lost Vince Wilfork and Jerrod Mayo for the season. Aquib Talib has also been in and out of the lineup and is a major loss when not in there as he is having an All-Pro season with 4 interceptions.  It is too bad when any teams sustain any injuries. We all want to see the best players play when watching the NFL. I hated seeing Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler both get hurt in the same division. It hurts the product big time.

The Patriots have not been as good on offense as they have been in the past as they have had their share of injuries as well.  Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski have both missed significant time and it has been difficult for Brady to get into rhythm when this has happened. He is still doing not too badly with 2500 passing yards with 14 TD and 7 interceptions. Not up to his standards but not bad nonetheless.  Julian Edelman has picked up the slack with the opportunity to play more by catching 52 passes and 2 TD.  Aaron Dobson has had some problem with drops as a rookie but has been better lately with 35 catches and 4 TD.  Amendola even when not playing all of the time has 29 catches and Gronkowski has 24 catches in his first 4 games back. Another wild card who has missed a lot of the season but is very talented is Shane Vareen. Vareen has 15 catches in 2 games and rushed for 102 yards over this span.  Stevan Ridley leads the rushing with 562 yards and 7 TD. Ridley however has had some fumbling problems including a huge one last week inside the red zone at Carolina.

Now the Broncos are not known for their defense and have struggled at times by giving up an average of 25 PPG.  They have recently improved though and have given up 21, 20 and 17 over the last 3 weeks.  Shaun Phillips leads with 9 sacks and has been a Godsend since Elvis Dumervil left after the whole contract snafu with the fax machine (I still don’t know how this happened in 2013, pretty sad really).

Von Miller has struggled in his return over the 4 games with only 2 sacks.  Miller should get better over time as he is a very talented Linebacker and probably in the top 5 defensive players when he is at his optimum. Robert Ayers and Derek Wolfe have contributed with 4.5 and 4 sacks respectively. Others that have an impact on the defense are Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie with 2 interceptions and Danny Trevathan who has 81 tackles 3 interceptions and 1 sack. He has done a fantastic job this year coming out of nowhere.  Wesley Woodyard is the defensive captain and has 56 tackles. This unit is only what will hold back the Broncos from being the team they want to be. The talent is there for them to be very good.  Jack Del Rio does like to gamble. It is high risk high reward. When you go after the QB on the other team, if they are able to get the ball away on a blitz. Then there is a chance for big plays against. Tony Romo lit them up for 48 points and 500 yards in the wild 51-48 Broncos win in October.

Now my finally prediction is that the Broncos are going to buck some of the tough trends for teams in Foxboro by winning 31-24.  The offensive talent to me will be the difference as the Patriots defense has so many injuries.  I think that Manning with his ability to change the play at the line of scrimmage that he does better than anyone else in the NFL in my opinion will be very difficult to stop with a banged up Linebacking and secondary.  I do believe that the Patriots will score against the Denver defense but the injuries are the key in the Bronco victory.

 

 

My Best All Time NFL Defenses

Best All-Time NFL Defenses

 

Because the game is played so differently now than it was in the 1970s, ranking some of the best all-time defenses is extremely difficult.  The defense that sticks out from that era is the Pittsburgh Steelers.  They had so many Hall of Famers on that team; Mean Joe Greene, Jack Lambert, Jack Ham, Mel Blount, and LC Greenwood led that bunch.  However, if these players played today like they did back then, they would be getting pass interference penalties, fines and suspensions. It was a much tougher NFL in that era, the constant asking the refs for the flag, like some wide receivers do today, would not happen.  Those WR would get their heads knocked off for sure.  Mel Blount was the NFL defensive player of the year in 1975 during that great run of Super Bowl Championships.   1976 Steelers did not win a Super Bowl, but had a legendary year on defense. They only gave up 28 points over the last 9 games played and 11 PPG over the season.  They got hurt during that playoffs on offense and eventually lost to Oakland in the AFC Championship game.

Jack Lambert was one of the meanest players to ever play in the NFL, he was probably as good a tackler that has ever played. Lambert was so dominant a linebacker that he won defensive rookie player of the year in 1974 and defensive player of the year in 1976.  Lambert went to 9 Straight Pro Bowls and was a huge cog of the Steel Curtain of this era.   Fear was huge during this time and Lambert along with Mean Joe Greene were the ring leaders.  Running backs would were not happy when Lambert hit them so hard that their bell rung. Jack Ham never won defensive player of the year, but was an All Pro 6 times and was one of the fastest linebackers in the history of the NFL.  Ham’s specialty was in forcing fumbles, he forced 59 over the years. This is just astounding.  The Steelers defensive unit was mainly responsible for the team winning 4 Super Bowls. The first 2 they were the dominant unit for them. The 3^rd and 4^th had a lot more help from the offense with Franco Harris, Terry Bradshaw and Stallworth and Swan being very good.  

When you mention the San Francisco 49ers of the 1980s what do you think of? Obviously it would be offense with Joe Montana, Jerry Rice, Roger Craig and Dwight Clark.  However the 49ers defense was also very, very good and, to me, underrated but dominant.  The 1981 unit only gave up an average of 15 PPG and the 1984 unit gave up 14 PPG.  When talking about the defense the first player of that era I think of is Ronnie Lott. Lott came into the league as a cornerback and was pretty good, but he really made his mark as the most dominant safety of the era.  He would strike fear into the hearts of any wide receiver going over the middle at that time.  He would be getting a lot of fines today if he played in the same reckless manner where he would launch himself at a ball carrier. This was legal back then, but now due to safety reasons is not acceptable any longer.  Lott had 63 career interceptions with his highest being 10 in 1986. He was a ballhawk and is in the Pro Football Hall of fame because of his well-rounded career.  Lott, also made the First team Pro 6 times. Other good players on this team were Fred Dean, who had 17.5 sacks in 1983, Hacksaw Reynolds at OLB and Keena Turner at ILB.  The secret of the niners was mainly being consistent and stopping other teams, thus getting the ball back to their fantastic offense.  Besides Ronnie Lott, there were no other real Super Stars that stand out but the numbers stand on their own. They won 4 Super Bowls mainly as a great offensive team but this unit was underrated to me and still is when thinking of great defenses in the 1980s.

Another very dominant defense of this era was the Chicago Bears from 1984-1987. The Bears, even though they only won only 1 Super Bowl, had probably the most dominant season of all time defensively in 1985.  The team only gave up 198 points for an average of about 12.3 PPG.  The Bears used a 46 defense that stressed getting pressure on the QB which led to a lot of sacks and turnovers.  The leading sacker was Richard Dent who had 17.5. Otis Wilson also had 10.5 from his linebacker position. Interior defensive linemen in Dan Hampton and Steve McMichael also had 8 and 6.5 sacks. Mike Singletary was the defensive captain and had well over 100 tackles and 3.5 sacks. Singletary had those eyes that could cut right through you and he made the First team All-Pro 7 times. It was scary. He was such a smart player. The secondary was excellent with Leslie Frasier getting 6 interceptions and Mike Richardson with 4.  Safeties Dave Deuerson and Gary Fencik would punish when they hit you and both had 5 interceptions each.  This defense only give up 10 points in 3 playoff games, both of their home playoff games saw them shutout their opponents.  The only team to score was the NE Patriots and they only got 10 in a 46-10 loss in the Super Bowl to Chicago.  The irony is the 1986 Bears actually only gave up 187 pts for and average of about 11.68 points but they lost to the Redskins in the playoffs.  

Fast forward to the early 1990s and a team that is thought of once again for their offense, the Dallas Cowboys, had an excellent defense during their Super Bowl. Run.  The 1992 team gave up 15.2 PPG and had a defense that had different players putting pressure on the QB and the sack leader was Jim Jeffcoat with 10.5. Tony Tolbert had 8 sacks as well.  The defensive backs were solid with Kevin Smith, James Washington and Thomas Everett. The 1993 Cowboys defense was even better only giving up 14.3 PPG. Jim Jeffcoat with 7 and Tony Tolbert with 6 sacks helped the defensive secondary get many picks on this season.  Kevin Smith had 6 int and Thomas Everett had 2. This shows that you do not have to have mind popping numbers as a defense to stop the other team. The Cowboys knew how to stop the run during that era.

Another great defense that is mainly based on one huge season is the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. This team only gave up 10.5 PPG. The Ravens defense was so good that year that they had back to back shutouts against Cleveland and Cincinnati.  This team had everything on D. Rod Woodson, playing safety in the later part of his career, intercepted 4 passes, Duane Starks had 6 interceptions and Chris McAlister 4. Ray Lewis was the heart and soul of this defense and he made the First team All-Pro 7 times. Lewis had 2 interceptions and had 137 tackles and was the main reason that this defense only gave up 60.5 yards per game rushing and 187 yards passing. Their pass rush did not get a lot of sacks and were led by Rob Burnett with 10.5 and Peter Bouleware with 7. This team was fantastic in the playoffs only giving up 23 points in 4 games, so basically 6 PPG. The Ravens were still good on defense in 2001 giving up 16.6 PPG and Bouleware had a very good year with 15 sacks, but they were not as dominant.

 

There are some good defenses in today’s NFL including the KC Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks, but in 2013 the league is so geared to the offense that if you give up 20 PPG you are one of the better ones in the league. Times have changed as the NFL wants to have more scoring. I understand their predicament but I wish they allowed the defense a little bit of leeway so that the scores can occasionally be 20-16 and not always 28-24 or 31-28 etc.  Balance is what makes the NFL fun to me. I like to see a good running game as well as a good passing game.  Thank you all for reading my blog.  I really appreciate it. I hope you enjoyed reading it as much as I enjoyed writing it.

 

 

The NFL Running Back in 2013 An Endangered Species

                                                        

I began watching football in 1979 and the mindset back then was in order to win a Super Bowl, or at least contend for one was to run the football and to stop the other team from doing it. Fast forward to 2013, and nothing could be farther from that ideal.  There are still some top running backs in todays game. Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings, who, to me, is clearly on his way to Canton, has run for 786 yards and 9 TD, along with 24 catches.  This season has been slow for him as he usually would have had at least one game of 150-200 yards but, in fact. his high so far is 140 vs both Dallas and Pitt.  It also does not help that the Vikings are 2-7 and are playing from behind most games, so it is hard to run when that happens.  Another good running back is Jamal Charles of the Chiefs who has run for 725 yards, 6 TD, but his high game rushing is only 100 yards. He is huge as a receiver, catching 47 passes and 2 TD through 9 games.  The last dominant back that I will mention is Lashawn McCoy who has rushed for 932 yards and has a high rushing game of 184 yards, which he did in week 1 vs the Redskins.  Honorable mentions are Marshawn Lynch (871 yards with 7 TD) and Alfred Morris (825 yards and 5 TD).

 Now, back to my youth.  The late Walter Payton of the Chicago Bears was dominant in the late 1970s and early 1980s. He had 4 seasons with over 1500 yards rushing and at least 10 rushing TD in 5 seasons. In 1984 the dominant running back was Eric Dickerson who rushed for an all-time single season record of 2105 yards with 14 TDs for the LA Rams.  He had 2 games of over 200 yards that season.  Barry Sanders, to me is the best pure running back that I saw play (I was not born when Jim Brown and Gayle Sayers were in the prime). Barry ran for 2053 yards in 1997 which is now the 3^rd best season of all time behind Dickerson and Adrian Pederson (2097 yards last year). Sanders could dominate a game.

The last running back I will mention is my favorite one, Terrell Davis. Davis had a short career unfortunately, he suffered a knee injury in a game vs the NY Jets where he made a tackle on a Brian Griese interception. It’s sad because he should be a Hall of Famer, in my opinion, as he dominated both the 1997 and 1998 post seasons for the Denver Broncos and gave John Elway the running back that was lacking throughout his career. The Broncos never would have won the Championships without him.  Davis ran for 1538, 1750 and 2008 yards from 1996-1998. In 1998, when Terrell won the NFL MVP, he had 21 TDs rushing and 2 receiving.   Davis ran for a postseason record 7 straight 100 yard games. In today’s game this is very unlikely to ever happen again.

 Now, it is not like running is not important, but it is not the end all be all in today’s NFL.  The league is now geared towards passing , you can barely touch the wide receivers without getting flagged for pass interference penalties. Most of the top passing seasons in the history of the NFL have happened in the last 5 years. There have been 6 times that QBs have thrown for 5000 yards and 5 of them have happened since 2008, the only one prior to that was Dan Marino throwing for 5084 yards in 1984. Drew Brees owns the all-time record with 5476 yards in 2011 and has reached 5000 2 other times. Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford are the only others.  Now, if I told you that John Elway, one of the all-time best QBs in NFL history, only threw for 4000 yards once and Stafford has thrown for 5000, would it surprise you? On the surface yes, but in reality no.  The league wants the “star wars” numbers as Jim Irsay, the owner of the Colts, has recently said.  I feel that the league is unfair to the defenses and not letting them have a bit more leeway on covering the wide receivers. It is almost impossible to cover the best of the best with only a 5 yard bump area. Calvin Johnson, AJ Green and Dez Bryant have dominated because of this. Imagine what the all- time best receiver, Jerry Rice, would do in today’s NFL. It would be mind boggling. Back in the 1970s the wide receivers would get mugged all over the field and even up to 2003, the defensive players could get away with a lot more liberties when covering the best wide receivers or tight ends going down the field.

 
In 2013, Lashawn McCoy has the high game in week 1, rushing 184 yards. Historically, by week 10, there would have been at least one or two games where a running back would go over 200 yards and sometimes even 250 yards. When looking at the single game rushing leaders thus far, there have been some weeks the most yards rushing was barely over 100 yards. This is unbelievable, how much the philosophy has changed since the 1970s-1980s.  It’s a different game now, but it is still a great game to watch and enjoy no matter what team that you root for.

As time goes on, I believe we’ll see more of the running back by committee, where teams split the carries between 2 or 3 running backs, we will be seeing less and less of the 1500 yard rushing seasons. The QBs however, will still put up 4500 to over 5000 yards passing for the best in the business.  This is not to say that if there is a dominant running back, like Adrian Peterson, that he won’t still be great, he still will be, but there will be less and less of those running backs. For example, Willis McGahee, he was good in his career, but if there was a  backup running back that is just as good and can split the carries with him and whomever can catch the ball better out of the backfield or more importantly can protect his QB against blitz pickup, then that running back will get the bulk of the load.

The other part as to why teams like to throw the ball more is because, for teams to play defense in this league, it is easier to stop the run then it is to stop the pass. With the rules as they are, it is almost not fair how easy it is to pass. Running over the years is basically the same now as it was 35 years ago, you try to dominate the other teams defensive line and linebackers to create daylight for your running back to exploit and gain yardage.  With passing, you only have to have the offensive linemen that have the correct technique for blocking, and not have to dominate, to gain the advantage over the other team.  

 

 These are just my opinions and may be way off base in some people’s eyes.  I just hope my writing gets you to think and formulate your own opinions as this is fun for me to do. I enjoyed writing this very much, hopefully you enjoyed reading it as much. Thank you for taking the time.

My First Half NFL Impressions

My first half NFL impressions

 

So far the NFL 2013 season has brought some surprises, both good and bad.  The biggest surprise to me is that the Kansas City Chiefs are 9-0 so far. They have one of the best defenses, having only given up an average of 12.33 PPG and the offense is averaging about 23.8 PPG. Andy Reid, who had a remarkable run of success in Philadelphia, took over a team that was just dreadful last year at 2-14 and has made them a force to be reckoned with. The Chiefs are led by the dynamic running back, Jamal Charles, who has run for 725 yards and also caught 47 passes for a combined 8 TD.  Alex Smith, who was acquired in a trade in the offseason with the SF 49ers, has thrown 9 TD and 4 Int. He has not been spectacular, but does not turn the ball over a lot and can run the offense.  He generally wins too, as he led SF to the NFC Champ Game and was in first place last year before getting hurt and losing his job to Colin Kaepernick.

 

Another team that had surprised, but in a bad way has been the NY Giants. Tom Coughlin, who is a good coach, is not happy with the effort I am sure. The Giants have a current record of 2-6, after starting 0-6, and have been a turnover machine.  Eli Manning has had an awful season, throwing only 10 TDs with 15 Interceptions and has lost 2 fumbles.  The defense has given up a total of 27.5 PPG.  The Giants have also struggled to run the football, stop the run, and be consistent in any facet of the game.  It feels like a lost season for them but in the long run I believe they will bounce back because of Coughlin and his leadership.

 

As many of you know, I have been a Denver Broncos fan for many years. My impression of the Broncos is generally good this year but I have some caution with their defense. It is hard not to be impressed with a team that averages 43 PPG. Peyton Manning is having an all-world season with 29 TD and only 5 Interceptions through 8 games.  The offence is led by Wide Receivers Wes Welker, 50 catches and 9 TD, Demaryius Thomas, 48 catches and 6 TD and Eric Decker 46 catches and 3 TD.  Knowshon Moreno has run for 459 yards with 8 TD and caught another 29 passes, and has done a good job being the lead back.  The Broncos face a tough stretch in November where they play KC, at NE and at KC. We will see how good this team really is.  I think they will do well, but will the defense hold up when giving up 27.5 PPG?

A team, to me, that has been exactly who I thought they would be is the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is 7-1 and play the best defense in the NFL, in my opinion. They only give up 16.5 PPG and score 25.8 PPG. They are especially tough at home as they have won 12 straight games there. Russell Wilson leads the offense with 15 TD and only 6 Int. He can also rush when he wants to, putting up 375 yards rushing thus far. Marshawn Lynch leads the team on the ground with 726 rushing yards and 6 TD. The Wideouts are balanced with Goden Tate having 35 catches and Doug Baldwin with 29.  The defense has, to me, the best cornerback in football with Richard Sherman who has 4 interceptions, bringing one back for a touchdown. The stingy defense is tough against the run and is almost impossible to beat at Seattle.         

 

Another team that I expected to be a better team and that has really struggled is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pitt is now 2-6 and sinking fast.  Their defense is the worst it has been in a long long time. They give up 26 PPG and are only scoring 19.5. Ben Roethlisberger is having an average season with 12 TD and 9 Int. He has also lost 5 fumbles. Pittsburgh’s hallmark over the years has been a good tough defense and causing turnovers. This defense hasn’t put enough pressure on the opposing QB, having only 14 sacks in 8 games, which is less than 2 a game.  Pittsburgh has had good management over the years so, I believe that they will bounce back either next season or the following year to be a playoff contender once again.

The most schizophrenic team that I can think of is the Dallas Cowboys. They can look so good, they gave the Denver Broncos one of their biggest scares of the season, losing to them 51-48 in one of the most exciting games I have ever seen. They can also struggle as they did in a 14-13 loss at Kansas City where, if they played like they did vs. Denver, they would have won easily. Tony Romo, who has thrown 20 TD with 6 interceptions, is having one of the best statistical seasons of his career. The offense is very explosive averaging 32.25 PPG, but their defense is giving up 26.12 PPG. The rest of their offense has Dez Bryant with 51 catches, 8 TD, Jason Witten 46 catches, 4 TD and super rookie Terrance Williams with 28 catches and 4 TD.  Dallas is capable of beating any team in the league, but, at times, can lose to almost anyone as well.

 

Another team that surprises me with their record is the New England Patriots. The Patriots had about as bad of an offseason that one can have.  First, they did not come to terms with Wes Welker and I believe, like many others, this was a huge mistake. Aaron Hernandez is in jail right now being involved in a murder and basically throwing his life down the drain. Rob Gronkowski missed the first 6 games of the season.  But, as what seems to usually happen because of good leadership of Tom Brady and Bill Bellicheck, they are 7-2.  The Patriots are averaging 26 PPG and only give 19.4 PPG. Brady has not had his best year, but does have 13 TD with 6 Int.  Julian Edelman leads the WR with 49 catches and 2 TDs,  Aaron Dobson has improved as the year goes on and has 31 catches and 4 TD. Gronkowski has 19 catches in 3 games with 1 TD that he scored last week. Stevan Ridley has 514 yards rushing with 6 TD.  The defense has improved big time with Aqib Talib who has 4 interceptions and, when healthy, has been one of the best cornerbacks in football.

 

Only time will tell as to who finishes strong and ends up in the Super Bowl. The injuries will be a huge part of this. I really hope that no more high profile players go down. Aaron Rodgers getting hurt in Green Bay is a huge loss, and these type of injuries to the great players will affect who gets to the Super Bowl.

Thank you so much for reading my blog. I hope you enjoyed reading as much as I did writing.