SNF Broncos at Patriots My Preview

My Preview of the Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

 The Denver Broncos who are 9-1 visit the New England Patriots who are 7-3 on Sunday November 24^th.   I have been a Denver Broncos fan for over 30 years and I really have been looking forward to this game. Last year was the first time I have ever seen Peyton Manning play in the 31-21 loss here in Foxboro in October.  I have a lot of respect for the Patriots and Tom Brady as he has had a Hall of Fame career and has an 80-14 career record at home. He has not lost to an AFC team at home since 2006. That is amazing. He lost only 3 times vs. the Giants, 49ers and Cardinals (not sure how Arizona won, no offense to them).  Of all the teams in the NFL, the only team that Brady is under 500 against is the Denver Broncos. He is 3-5 against them.

Over the years Brady has had the upper hand against Manning. He is 9-4 including the playoffs. Sometimes some of these games were not always about the offenses, the defenses of especially the Patriots from 2001-2004 was as good as it got in the league.  They had one of the best passer ratings against in 2003 when they won the Super Bowl.  Manning for most of his career boasted weak defenses.  This is not an excuse for either QB. Brady had some mediocre defenses as well. He made the Super Bowl in 2011 with about as bad of a defense that the Patriots had during the Belicheck era. 

On to this game.  The Broncos have had a great offensive season. They are currently averaging 39.8 PPG and have scored at least 27 points in every game. Manning through 10 games has thrown for over 3500 yards, 34 TD and only 6 Int. He has a set of wide receivers Wes Welker 61 catches, 9 TD, Demaryius Thomas 60 catches,, 9 TD and Eric Decker 54 catches, 3 TD. Super TE Julius Thomas who still struggles as a blocker but is a fantastic pass catcher has 45 catches and 10 TD.  Knowshon Moreno leads the running backs with 600 yards rushing and 8 TD. He has also caught 37 passes and is an all-around player as he has been great at pass protecting Manning by picking up the Blitz. The offensive line has done a good job by only allowing 13 sacks in 10 games.  However, Manning has probably one of the quickest releases in NFL history, so he basically makes most offensive lines look good in my opinion.  As of right now, Wes Welker is still being evaluated for a concussion and we are not sure if he will get to play against his old team. It would be a shame if he can’t go.

The Patriots defense has really improved since last year. Chandler Jones is having a fantastic season with 9.5 sacks through 10 games. Rob Ninkovich and Chris Jones each have 5 sacks.  The defense is giving up an average of 19.9 PPG. The defense however has taken some really bad hits with injuries. They have lost Vince Wilfork and Jerrod Mayo for the season. Aquib Talib has also been in and out of the lineup and is a major loss when not in there as he is having an All-Pro season with 4 interceptions.  It is too bad when any teams sustain any injuries. We all want to see the best players play when watching the NFL. I hated seeing Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler both get hurt in the same division. It hurts the product big time.

The Patriots have not been as good on offense as they have been in the past as they have had their share of injuries as well.  Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski have both missed significant time and it has been difficult for Brady to get into rhythm when this has happened. He is still doing not too badly with 2500 passing yards with 14 TD and 7 interceptions. Not up to his standards but not bad nonetheless.  Julian Edelman has picked up the slack with the opportunity to play more by catching 52 passes and 2 TD.  Aaron Dobson has had some problem with drops as a rookie but has been better lately with 35 catches and 4 TD.  Amendola even when not playing all of the time has 29 catches and Gronkowski has 24 catches in his first 4 games back. Another wild card who has missed a lot of the season but is very talented is Shane Vareen. Vareen has 15 catches in 2 games and rushed for 102 yards over this span.  Stevan Ridley leads the rushing with 562 yards and 7 TD. Ridley however has had some fumbling problems including a huge one last week inside the red zone at Carolina.

Now the Broncos are not known for their defense and have struggled at times by giving up an average of 25 PPG.  They have recently improved though and have given up 21, 20 and 17 over the last 3 weeks.  Shaun Phillips leads with 9 sacks and has been a Godsend since Elvis Dumervil left after the whole contract snafu with the fax machine (I still don’t know how this happened in 2013, pretty sad really).

Von Miller has struggled in his return over the 4 games with only 2 sacks.  Miller should get better over time as he is a very talented Linebacker and probably in the top 5 defensive players when he is at his optimum. Robert Ayers and Derek Wolfe have contributed with 4.5 and 4 sacks respectively. Others that have an impact on the defense are Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie with 2 interceptions and Danny Trevathan who has 81 tackles 3 interceptions and 1 sack. He has done a fantastic job this year coming out of nowhere.  Wesley Woodyard is the defensive captain and has 56 tackles. This unit is only what will hold back the Broncos from being the team they want to be. The talent is there for them to be very good.  Jack Del Rio does like to gamble. It is high risk high reward. When you go after the QB on the other team, if they are able to get the ball away on a blitz. Then there is a chance for big plays against. Tony Romo lit them up for 48 points and 500 yards in the wild 51-48 Broncos win in October.

Now my finally prediction is that the Broncos are going to buck some of the tough trends for teams in Foxboro by winning 31-24.  The offensive talent to me will be the difference as the Patriots defense has so many injuries.  I think that Manning with his ability to change the play at the line of scrimmage that he does better than anyone else in the NFL in my opinion will be very difficult to stop with a banged up Linebacking and secondary.  I do believe that the Patriots will score against the Denver defense but the injuries are the key in the Bronco victory.